SHOT Show 2026: What We Saw and What It Means for the Industry

Swanson Russell’s Kylie Legree (EVP, Director of Experience), Patrick Finnegan (EVP, Group Account Director) and Sam Larson (Account Director) returned from another great SHOT Show in Las Vegas with a clear snapshot of where the shooting, hunting and outdoor industry stands at the outset of 2026.

As always, SHOT brought together thousands of brands, retailers, media and decision makers to network, showcase innovation and assess the market outlook across products and policy. From the show floor to Industry Day at the Range, the conversations and trends we captured signal a marketplace that’s stabilizing in some ways, evolving quickly in others and still balancing optimism with caution.

Suppressors Dominate the Conversation

The most talked about shift at SHOT Show 2026 was not just new products. It was the impact of regulatory change on the suppressor market. With the traditional $200 National Firearms Act tax stamp effectively reduced to zero as of January 1, 2026, barriers that once deterred many buyers have melted away.

Across booths and demos, manufacturers highlighted a flood of suppressor offerings, from high-end performance units to highly accessible entry-level models priced under $200. These products are designed not just to compete on performance but also on cost relative to ammo and optics.

That shift is real and broad:

• Suppressor demos and discussions were everywhere, from established names to new entrants
• Companies touted modular designs, enhanced cooling technology and multi-role configurations
• Even brands outside of core suppressor makers are building suppressor ready platforms as standard, threading barrels and including compatible sights at baseline

In practical terms, this is not just hype. The near elimination of the tax burden is lowering both the psychological and financial cost of entry. As a result, the suppressor space is evolving from a niche accessory into a routine gear consideration.

Brands Are Confident but Spending More Cautiously

There’s a noticeable shift in tone compared to recent SHOT Shows. Supply chains have stabilized, inventory is healthier and many brands appear more comfortable operating in a normalized demand environment.

That comfort, however, has brought sharper discipline. Brands are spending on marketing more selectively, prioritizing targeted, performance-driven efforts and clearer ROI over broad, unfocused programs.

At the same time, with overall category growth largely flat, future gains are increasingly tied to competitive displacement rather than market expansion. That reality raises the stakes for marketing: standing out, defending share and earning loyalty matter more than ever, even as budgets face closer scrutiny.

Tariffs and NICS Checks Continue to Shape the Market

While booths may feel smaller and exhibit footprints are more modest, policy developments continue to exert substantial influence on how brands think and act across the year, specifically on two fronts.

Tariffs Uncertainty Remains

Duty costs and import rules continue to weigh on manufacturer and distributor planning, with added pressure from a pending Supreme Court decision related to tariffs. The Court is expected to return on February 20th, a potential inflection point that could bring early clarity — or extend uncertainty — into the spring.

With final opinions typically issued by June, many brands are holding off on major sourcing, pricing and international partnership decisions, opting for flexibility until the legal picture becomes clearer.

NICS Checks Were Down Year over Year

This key indicator of consumer firearm demand was down a little more than 7% YoY, which amounts to around 2,000,000 total checks. While not a precise measurement of sales, it’s often used as a directional signal. For many, it reinforces the idea that the peak buying surges of past years have settled, and that consumer behavior is trending toward more measured, need-based purchases rather than impulse buys.

On the legal front, a Supreme Court ruling related to tariffs and federal firearm laws is anticipated to have ripple effects across multiple market sectors. Impacts may range from changes to pricing strategies to adjustments in product rollout timelines as companies wait for regulatory clarity.

These structural factors serve as a reminder that while product innovation and regulatory relief — such as the tax stamp change — are major positives, external policy and economic forces still play a powerful role in guiding strategic planning for outdoor brands.

Booths Are Smaller but Engagement Is Deeper

One clear visual cue from this year’s show floor was the trend toward smaller booth footprints. Many exhibitors opted for more concentrated presentations, focusing on a few key releases instead of sprawling displays. That aligns with the broader moderation in spending seen across the industry.

Smaller spaces did not mean less engagement. If anything, this trend pushed exhibitors to drive more meaningful hands-on demos and more substantive conversations with buyers and media. The shift from quantity to quality was something attendees clearly appreciated.

Brands Are Leaning into Measured Growth

SHOT Show 2026 was not defined by a single game changing product or a standout tech breakthrough. It was defined by momentum and transition. Regulatory shifts are reshaping expectations. Product strategies are more thoughtful. Brands are balancing optimism with pragmatism.

For marketers and brand owners, this year’s show reinforced a fundamental truth: steady, strategic moves are more effective than chasing headlines in a mature market. When policy and regulation create room for innovation, such as the changes in the suppressor space, brands that respond with a clear value story will benefit. Where uncertainty persists, like tariffs or variable demand, agility and targeted investments are more likely to pay off.

Many in the industry are also adjusting to a market that no longer moves on autopilot. After years of steady growth and fear-driven demand, today’s landscape requires a return to fundamentals. Products won’t sell themselves. Success now depends on strategic marketing, smart storytelling and an ability to compete in a more complex, more competitive environment.